Michał Bernard Pietrzak , Mirosława Żurek , Stanisław Matusik , Justyna Wilk
ARTICLE

(English) PDF

ABSTRACT

Migrations form the size and structure of human resources in regions. For that reason they have not only a demographic but also a social and economic character. The existing research is often not enough due to a spatial, temporary and also a multidimensional character of this occurrence.
The subject of this paper is to apply Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) concept for analysing the population migration phenomena considering the gravity model. This approach allows describing the social and economic situation in regions considering a set of correlated variables and it also allows determining its influence on migration flows.
The first part of the article describes the construction and interpretation of the gravity model and the concept of the SEM model. In the second part the adopted research procedure and the research scope are presented. In the last part, the results of the investigation are explained. The strength and direction of the impact of the socio-economic development on the migration flows between subregions (NUTS 3) in Poland in the years 2008-2010 are discussed.

KEYWORDS

internal migrations, gravity model, Structural Equation Modeling

REFERENCES

[1] Anderson J.E., (1979), A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Model, American Economic Review, 69 (1), 106-116.

[2] Anderson J.E., Van Wincoop E., (2004), Trade Costs, Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 691-751.

[3] Bak A., Chmielewski R., Piotrowska M., Szymborska A., Slesik M. (2009), Zróznicowania społeczno-gospodarcze w Polsce. Porównanie podziału na 45 i 66 podregionów, Przeglad Regionalny nr 3, Stan wdrazania programów operacyjnych realizowanych w latach 2007-2013. Perspektywa regionalna, Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, Warszawa.

[4] Baltagi B.H., Egger P., Pfaffermayr M., (2003), A Generalized Design for Bilateral Trade Flow Models, Economics Letters, 80, 391-397.

[5] Bollen K.A., (1989), Structural Equations with Latent Variables, Wiley.

[6] Brown T.A., (2006), Confirmatory Factor Analysis for Applied Research, Guilford Press.

[7] Byrne B.M., (2010), Structural Equation Modeling with AMOS: Basic Concepts, Applications and Programming (2nd ed.), Routledge/Taylor & Francis, New York.

[8] Chojnicki Z., (1966), Zastosowanie modeli grawitacji i potencjału w badaniach przestrzennoekonomicznych, PWN, Warszawa.

[9] Cronbach L.J., (1951), Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests, Psychometrika, 16 (3), 297-334.

[10] Danska-Borsiak B., (2007), Migracje miedzywojewódzkie ludnosci a działalnosc badawczorozwojowa w województwach (zastosowanie modeli grawitacji), Wiadomosci Statystyczne no. 5 (552), 53-66.

[11] Danska-Borsiak B., (2008), Zróznicowanie poziomu rozwoju gospodarczego województw w Polsce a wielkosc migracji miedzywojewódzkich, Taksonomia 15. Klasyfikacja i analiza danych – teoria i zastosowania, PN UE we Wrocławiu no. 7(1207), 364-370.

[12] Deardorff A., (1998), Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? NBER Chapters, The Regionalization of the World Economy, 7-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Washington DC.

[13] Egger P., (2002), An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials, World Economy, 25, 297-312.

[14] Faustino H., Leit~ao N.C., (2007), Intra-Industry Trade: A Static and Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, International Advances in Economic Research, 13 (3), 313-333.

[15] Frankel J., Stein E., Wei S.J., (1995), Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural, the Unnatural and the Super-Natural, Journal of Development Economics 47, 61-95.

[16] Gatnar E., (2003), Statystyczne modele struktury przyczynowej zjawisk ekonomicznych, Wydawnictwo akademii Ekonomicznej w Katowicach, Katowice.

[17] Ghatak S., Mulhern A., Watson J., (2008), Inter-regional Migration in Transition Economies. The Case of Poland, Review of Development Economics, 12(1), Oxford, p. 209-222.

[18] Goldberger A.S., (1972), Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, Econometrica, 40(2), 979-1001.

[19] Grabinski T., (1991), Modele generalizacji przestrzennej, In: Zelias A. (Ed.), (1991), Ekonometria przestrzenna, PWE, Warszawa.

[20] Grabinski T., Malina A., Wydymus S., Zelias A., (1988), Metody statystyki miedzynarodowej, PWE, Warszawa.

[21] Hair J.F., Anderson R.E., Tatham R.L., Black W.C., (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis with Readings, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.

[22] Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators. Methodology and User Guide, OECD, Paryz 2008.

[23] Helliwell J., (1997), National Borders, Trade and Migration, Pacific Economic Review 2, 165-185.

[24] Holzer J.Z., (2003), Demografia, PWE, Warszawa.

[25] J¨oreskog K.G., S¨orbom D., (1979), Advances in Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Models, New York: University Press of America.

[26] Kabir M., Salim R., (2010), Can Gravity Model Explain BIMSTEC’S Trade?, Journal of Economic Integration , 25(1), 144-166.

[27] Kaplan D., (2000), Structural Equation Modeling: Foundations and Extensions, Sage Publications.

[28] Kim J.O., Mueller C.W., (1978), Factor Analysis. Statistical Methods and Practical Issues, Sage, Beverly Hills.

[29] Kline R.B., (2010), Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling, Guilford Press.

[30] Konarski R., (2011), Modele równan strukturalnych. Teoria i praktyka, PWN, Warszawa.

[31] Kupiszewski M., Durham H., Rees P., (1999), Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Poland Case Study, W: P. Rees, M. Kupiszewski, Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: A Synthesis, Collection Demography, Council of Europe, Strasbourg.

[32] LeSage J.P., Pace R.K., (2009), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, CRC Press, New York.

[33] Lewandowska-Gwarda K., Antczak E., (2010), Wprowadzenie do przestrzennych analiz ekonomicznych, In: Suchecki B. (ed.), Ekonometria przestrzenna, Wydawnictwo C. H. Beck, Warszawa.

[34] Lucas R., (1997), Internal Migration in Developing Countries, In: M.R. Rosenzweig, 0. Stark (Ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Elsevier Science B.V, Amsterdam, s. 721-798.

[35] Matusik S., (2008), Zastosowanie SEM w analizie czynników okreslajacych poziom rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego na przykładzie gmin woj. małopolskiego, In: Z. Zielinski (Ed.), Współczesne trendy w ekonometrii, Wyzsza Szkoła Informatyki i Ekonomii TWP, Olsztyn.

[36] Osinska M., (2008), Ekonometryczna analiza zaleznosci przyczynowych, Uniwersytet Mikołaja Kopernika, Torun.

[37] Osinska M., Pietrzak M.B., Zurek M., (2011a), Ocena wpływu czynników behawioralnych i rynkowych na postawy inwestorów indywidualnych na polskim rynku kapitałowym, Przeglad statystyczny, 58 (3-4).

[38] Osinska M., Pietrzak M.B., Zurek M., (2011b), Wykorzystanie modeli równan strukturalnych do opisu psychologicznych mechanizmów podejmowania decyzji na rynku kapitałowym, Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernici – Ekonomia, 42 (403), 7-21.

[39] Pearl J., (2000), Causality. Models, Reasoning and Inference, Cambridge.

[40] Pietrzak M., Wilk J., Matusik S., (2012), Gravity Model as the Tool for Internal Migration Analysis in Poland in 2004-2010, Quantitative Methods for Modelling and Forecasting Economic Processes, Wydawnictwo UE w Krakowie, Kraków, in print.

[41] P¨oyh¨onen P., (1963), A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90 (1), 93-99.

[42] Roy J.R., (2004), Spatial Interaction Modeling: A Regional Science Context, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

[43] Sen A., Smith T.E., (1995), Gravity Models of Spatial Interaction Behavior, Springer, Berlin-Heilderberg-New York.

[44] Serlenga L., Shin Y., (2007), Gravity Models of Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Unobserved Common Time- Specific Factors, Journal of applied Econometrics, 22, 361-81.

[45] Strzała K., (2006), Modelowanie równan strukturalnych: koncepcja i podstawowe pojecia, Prace i Materiały Wydziału Zarzadzania Uniwersytetu Gdanskiego, 2, 121-130.

[46] Suchecki B., Lewandowska-Gwarda K., Olejnik A., (2010), Wprowadzenie do przestrzennych analiz ekonomicznych, In: Suchecki B. (Ed.), Ekonometria przestrzenna, Wydawnictwo C. H. Beck, Warszawa.

[47] Tinbergen J., (1962), Shaping the World Economy, The Twentieth Century Fund Inc., New York.

[48] Todaro M., (1980), Internal Migration in Developing Countries. A survey, In: R.A. Easterlin, Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 361-402.

[49] Welfe A., (2009), Ekonometria. Metody i ich zastosowanie, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa.

[50] White M.J., Lindstrom D.P., (2006), Internal Migration, In: D.L. Poston, M. Micklin (Eds.), Handbook of population, Springer, Berlin-Heilderberg.

Back to top
Copyright © 2019 Statistics Poland