Waldemar Florczak , Arkadiusz Florczak
ARTICLE

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ABSTRACT

In view of the contemporary changes in socio-economic processes implied by demographic conditions, it seems advisable to disseminate and deepen quantitative methods of modeling and forecasting demographic processes. This article deals with mortality analysis in Poland, of both males and females, in the years 1990–2015 by means of mortality laws covering the whole life span. Six models were investigated: 8-parameter Heligman-Pollard model, 9-parameter Heligman-Pollard model, Kostaki model, multixponential model, and finally 8- and 11-parameter Carriere models. The parameters of the models were estimated in R environment using numerical methods minimizing four different objective functions. The outcomes show that in the period under consideration some changes in the mortality patterns occurred. Now it is the 9-parameter Heligman-Pollard model for males and the 8-parameter Carriere model for females that seem best suited to model mortality in Poland.

KEYWORDS

multi-parameter mortality models of whole life span, demometrics, actuarial analysis, numerical methods, forecasting

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