Łukasz Lenart , Mateusz Pipień

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We discuss representation of uncertainty in the business cycle clock. We propose approach utilising description of the unconditional mean of the process, applied for modelling dynamics of macroeconomic time series, as a trend component and almost period function in a non-parametric setting. We capture the dynamics over the business cycle, trend component and seasonal fluctuations and possible interactions between these features. A particular values of the almost periodic function are key for representation of the business cycle in a clock, expressing the dynamics according to phase diagram. The set of frequencies interpreted as a properties of the business fluctuations are invariant with respect to filtration methods applied in the procedure.


business cycle clock, filtration, almost periodically correlated processes


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