Henryk Gurgul , Paweł Zając

(Polish) PDF


The goal of this research was the survival analysis of enterprises founded in Lesser Poland Voivodship between years 2006–2014. The sample comprising 267 thousands firms was used to examine whether certain factors such as the size of the company, area of its activity and registration place had statistically significant impact on their duration time. All of those proved to be substantial in the course of our study. In general companies belonging to the sector of finance and insurance survived the shortest, whereas the longest duration (even four times longer than in finance and insurance) was among companies from mining sector, public administration, national defense and social insurance. Moreover, the research has proved that while moving further from Cracow, the survival of companies was likely to shorten. The only exception was Tatra Country, where duration was relatively long despite the distance factor. Additionally companies in urban areas were active approximately 9% longer than firms founded in rural ones. To the best of our knowledge this is the first application of an AFT (accelerated failure time) model to survival analysis of companies based on the data from Central European country. In this case its application proves existence of the heterogeneity of the hazard function.


enterprises, Lesser Poland Voivodeship, accele rated failure time model, hazard function, survival analysis


Agarwal R., Sarkar M. B., Echambadi R., (2002), The Conditioning Effect of Time on Firm Survival: An Industry Life Cycle Approach, Academy of Management Journal, 45 (5), 971–994.

Allison P. D., (1995), Survival Analysis Using Sas: A Practical Guide, Sas Institute Inc., Cary.

Armington C., Acs Z., (2002), The Determinants of Regional Variation in New Firm Formation, Regional Studies, 36 (1), 33–45.

Bruce R., (1976), The Entrepreneurs: Strategies, Motivations, Successes, and Failures, U.K. Libertarian Books, Bedford.

Cefis E., Marsili O., (2005), A Matter of Life and Death: Innovation and Firm Survival, Industrial and Corporate Change, 14 (6), 1–26.

Fritsch M., (1997), New Firms and Regional Employment Change, Small Business Economics, 2, 437–448.

Gerosky P. A., (1995), What do we Know About Entry, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 13 (4), 413–614.

Gerosky P. A., Mata J., Portugal P., (2010), Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms, Strategic Management Journal, 31 (5), 510–529.

Greiner L. E., (1972), Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow, Harvard Business Review, 50 (4), 37–46.

Greiner L. E., Schein V. E., (1988), Power and Organization Development: Mobilizing Power to Implement Change, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, New York.

Gurgul H., Zając P., Matschke X., Matschke M. J., (2014), A Dynamic Model of Birth and Death of Enterprises in Germany, Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung und Praxis, 66 (1), 86–103.

Gutierrez R. G., (2002), Parametric Frailty and Shared Frailty Survival Models, The Stata Journal, 2 (1), 22–44.

Handy C., (1996), Wiek paradoksu, Dom Wydawniczy ABC, Warszawa.

Hougaard P., (1984), Life Table Methods for Heterogeneous Populations: Distributions Describing the Heterogeneity, Biometrika, 71 (1), 75–83.

Jovanovic B., (1982), Selection and Evolution of Industry, Econometrica, 50 (3), 649–670.

Knight F. H., (1921), Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Hart, Schaffner, and Marx Prize Essays, nr. 31, Boston i New York: Houghton Mifflin.

Landmesser J., (2013), Wykorzystanie metod analizy czasu trwania do badania aktywności ekonomicznej ludności w Polsce, Wydawnictwo SGGW, Warszawa.

Levie J., Lichtenstein B. B., (2010), A Terminal Assessment of Stages Theory: Introducing a Dynamic States Approach to Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 34 (2), 317–350.

Markowicz I., (2012), Statystyczna analiza żywotności firm, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego, Szczecin.

Nehrebecka N., Dzik A. M. (2013), Business Demography in Poland: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Determinants of Firm Survival, Working Papers 2013-08, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

Pociecha J., (2012), Model logitowy jako narzędzie prognozowania bankructwa. Jego zalety i ograniczenia, w: Spotkania z królową nauk, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego, Kraków.

Prusak B., (2011), Ekonomiczna analiza upadłości przedsiębiorstw – ujęcie międzynarodowe, CeDeWu, Warszawa.

Ptak-Chmielewska A., (2010), Analiza przeżycia przedsiębiorstw w Polsce na przykładzie wybranego województwa, w: Dittmann P., (red.), Prognozowanie w zarządzaniu firmą, Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, Wrocław.

Schumpeter J. A., (1999), Teoria rozwoju gospodarczego, PWE, Warszawa.

Smith K., Mitchell T., Summer C., (1985), Top Level Management Priorities in Different Stages of the Organization Life Cycle, Academy of Management Journal, 28 (4), 799–820.

van Praag C. M., (1996), Determinants of Successful Entrepreneuership, Thesis Publisher, Amsterdam.

Vaupel J. W., Manton K. G., Stallard E., (1979), The Impact of Heterogeneity in Individual Frailty on the Dynamics of Mortality, Demography, 16 (3), 439–454.

Zając P., (2013), The New Approach to Estimation of the Hazard Function in Business Demography on Example of Data from New Zealand, Managerial Economics, 13, 99–110.

Back to top
Copyright © 2019 Statistics Poland