© Sebastian Amit Roy. Article available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 licence
This paper contributes to the economic voting literature by evaluating the effect of a policy-determined income shock on individual-level support for the government. It examines the results of a natural experiment relating to the 2016 Polish job market reform that raised the minimal hourly wage to PLN 12 per hour for all workers, regardless of their contract type, thus asym- metrically affecting low-earning individuals engaged in precarious work. The study employs a detailed microeconomic dataset from the European Social Survey to perform a difference-indifferences analysis. It concludes that the reform had a significant, positive impact on the levels of support received by the government, notably higher than any macroeconomic variable.
economic voting, natural experiment, difference-in-differences
C31, C33, H53, J38
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics. An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4j72.
Arak, P., Lewandowski, P., & Żakowiecki, P. (2014). Fikcja zatrudniania w Polsce – propozycje wyjścia z impasu. Instytut Badań Strukturalnych. https://ibs.org.pl/wp-content/uploads/2014/05 /IBS_Policy_Paper_01-2014_streszczenie.pdf .
Barro, R. J. (1973). The Control of Politicians: An Economic Model. Public Choice, 14(1), 19–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01718440.
van der Brug, W., van der Eijk, C., & Franklin, M. (2007). The Economy and the Vote. Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017 /CBO9780511618857 .
Campbell, J. E., & Garand, J. C. (Eds.). (2000). Before the Vote. Forecasting American National Elections. SAGE Publications.
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The American Economic Review, 84(4), 772–793. https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/njmin-aer.pdf.
Christensen, T., & Lagreid, P. (2005). Trust in Government: The Relative Importance of Service Satisfaction, Political Factors, and Demography. Public Performance & Management Review, 28(4), 487–511. https://doi.org/10.1080/15309576.2005.11051848.
Christensen, T., Yamamoto, K., & Aoyagi, S. (2020). Trust in local government: Service satisfaction, culture, and demography. Administration & Society, 52(8), 1268–1296. https://doi.org/10.1177 /0095399719897392 .
Chrostek, P., Klejdysz, J., Korniluk, D., & Skawiński, M. (2019). Wybrane aspekty systemu podatkowo-składkowego na podstawie danych PIT i ZUS 2016. Ministerstwo Finansów RP. https://www.gov.pl/web /finanse/wybrane-aspekty-systemu-podatkowo-skladkowego-na-podstawie-danych-pit-i-zus-2016 .
Duch, R. M., & Stevenson, R. T. (2008). The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755934.
Easton, D. (1965). The political system: An inquiry into the state of political science. Knopf.
Erikson, R. S. (1989). Economic Conditions and The Presidential Vote. The American Political Science Review, 83(2), 567–573. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962406.
European Social Survey. (2014). Documentation of ESS Post-Stratification Weights.
European Social Survey. (2018). ESS8 Appendix A2. Income. https://stessrelpubprodwe.blob.core.windows.net/data/round8/survey/ESS8_appendix_a2_e02_1.pdf.
Farré, L., Fasani, F., & Mueller, H. (2015). Feeling Useless: The Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health in the Great Recession (Barcelona GSE Working Paper No. 838). https://bse.eu/research/working-papers/feeling-useless-effect-unemployment-mental-health-great-recession.
Fearon, J. D. (1999). Electoral Accountability and the Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types versus Sanctioning Poor Performance. In A. Przeworski, S. C. Stokes & B. Manin (Eds.), Democracy, Accountability, and Representation (pp. 55–97). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139175104.
Feltovich, N., & Giovannoni, F. (2015). Selection vs. accountability: An experimental investigation of campaign promises in a moral-hazard environment. Journal of Public Economics, 126, 39–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.03.008.
Fiorina, M. P. (1978). Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-Analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 22(2), 426–443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2110623.
Główny Urząd Statystyczny. (2018a). Rocznik Statystyczny Pracy 2017. https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/roczniki-statystyczne/roczniki-statystyczne/rocznik-statystyczny-pracy-2017,7,5.html. Główny Urząd Statystyczny. (2018b). Struktura wynagrodzeń według zawodów w październiku 2016 r.
Hellwig, T., & McAllister, I. (2019). Party Positions, Asset Ownership, and Economic Voting. Political Studies, 67(4), 912–931. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321718815781.
Kahn-Lang, A., & Lang, K. (2018). The Promise and Pitfalls of Differences-in-Differences: Reflections on 16 and Pregnant and Other Applications. Journal of Business &Economic Statistics, 38(3), 613–520. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1546591.
Kamińska, A., Lewandowski, P., & Pogorzelski, K. (2014). Dualny rynek pracy, płaca minimalna i nierówności (IBS Policy Paper No. 02). https://ibs.org.pl/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/IBS_Policy _Paper_02_2014_pl.pdf .
Kenski, H. C. (1977). The Impact of Economic Conditions on Presidential Popularity. The Journal of Politics, 39(3), 764–773. https://doi.org/10.2307/2129651.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 183–219. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.183.
Liberini, F., Redoano, M., & Proto, E. (2017). Happy Voters. Journal of Public Economics, 146, 41– 57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.11.013.
List, J. A., & Sturm, D. M. (2006). How Elections Matter: Theory and Evidence from Environmental Policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(4), 1249–1281. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/121.4.1249 .
Monroe, K. R. (1978). Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity. Public Opinion Quarterly, 42(3), 360–369. https://doi.org/10.1086/268459.
Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955610.
Nannestad, P., & Paldam, M. (1994). The VP-function: A survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years. Public Choice, 79(3–4), 213–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01047771.
Pacek, A. C., & Radcliff, B. (1995). Economic Voting and the Welfare State: A Cross-National Analysis. The Journal of Politics, 57(1), 44–61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2960270.
Palmer, H. D., & Whitten, G. D. (2003). Economics, politics, and the cost of ruling in advanced industrial democracies: How much does context matter?. In H. Dorussen & M. Taylor (Eds.), Economic Voting (pp. 92–117). Routlege.
Park, B. B., & Shin, J. (2017). Do the welfare benefits weaken the economic vote? A cross-national analysis of the welfare state and economic voting. International Political Science Review, 40(1), 108–125. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512117716169.
Powell, G. B. Jr., & Whitten, G. D. (1993). A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 391–414. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111378.
Roberts, J. M. (1995). New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24(4), 975–984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2077783.
Sejm Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej. (2016). Projekt ustawy o zmianie ustawy o minimalnym wynagrodzeniu za pracę oraz niektórych innych ustaw. https://orka.sejm.gov.pl/Druki8ka.nsf/0/90371E5981A7C5FEC1257FCD0033878F/%24File/600.pdf.
Stegmaier, M., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Park, B. (2017). The VP-Function: A Review. In K. Arzheimer,J. Evans & M. S. Lewis-Beck (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour (pp. 584–605). SAGE Publications.
Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307 /j.ctv15r5816.
Ustawa z dnia 26 czerwca 1974 r. – Kodeks pracy (Dz.U. 1974 nr 24 poz. 141).
Ustawa z dnia 11 lutego 2016 r. o pomocy państwa w wychowywaniu dzieci (Dz.U. 2016 poz. 195).
Ustawa z dnia 22 lipca 2016 r. o zmianie ustawy o minimalnym wynagrodzeniu za pracę oraz niektórych innych ustaw (Dz.U. 2016 poz. 1265).
Ward, G. (2019). Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe. American Journal of Political Science, 64(3), 504–518. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12492.
